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'9 out of 10 people' is usually 9 people

I looked into a statistic I had repeated confidently for two years. The sample was thirty-one respondents, self-selected, from one mailing list, and the question was worded so that disagreeing required effort.

It was not a lie. Every step was disclosed somewhere. It just arrived in my head as a fact and left as a fact, and the trench coat did all the work in between.

My new rule: before repeating a number, find out how many people it came from. It takes ninety seconds and it is frequently devastating.

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  • Ninety seconds is optimistic. Most sources I chase go four hops deep and end at a press release with no method section at all.

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  • Adding this to the list of things that worked. It is the cheapest upgrade to your own credibility available.

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